The Japan construction market is projected to grow from USD 609.27 billion in 2024 to USD 716.66 billion by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.30% during the forecast period. This sector is a cornerstone of the Japanese economy, contributing approximately 5.5% to the GDP in 2021. The growth trajectory has been significantly influenced by reconstruction efforts following the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Tokyo Olympics, which have driven considerable investments and development over the past decade.
The Japan Construction Market: A Comprehensive Overview
Soaring Market Prices and Global Influences
The construction industry in Japan, like many other global markets, is grappling with heightened inflation due to geopolitical tensions and economic complexities. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia and the ensuing international sanctions have exacerbated these issues, leading to disruptions in global supply chains and rising resource costs. Additionally, a weakened yen has compelled Japanese manufacturers to reconsider domestic production to counter declining output since the global financial crisis.
Despite these challenges, the Japan construction market has demonstrated resilience and significant growth. Earthquake reconstruction efforts and special demands from major events such as the Paralympic and Olympic Games have fueled this expansion. The construction engineering market is expected to see continued demand driven by projects like the Linear Chuo Shinkansen (maglev bullet train service), disaster prevention and mitigation activities, and the maintenance and reconstruction of existing infrastructure. While corporate demand for offices is anticipated to rise, consumer demand for suburban single-family homes may decline as the demand from second-generation baby boomers wanes.
Digital Transformation in Construction
The construction industry in Japan faces critical challenges due to a shrinking pool of productive-age workers and peaking labor participation. This necessitates improved employment conditions and the transfer of skills from retiring workers to younger generations to foster inclusivity and attract a diverse workforce amid rising wages and intensified competition.
Embracing digital transformation is crucial for the sector, particularly through technologies like Building Information Modeling (BIM), which leverages vast datasets and enhances in-house capabilities. Businesses should focus on strategic thinking to bridge the gap between front office and management, enhancing productivity and value through work division and improved customer contact points. Adopting a "network model" with an integrated view of supply and value chains allows for the quick capture of customer needs and prompt, quality decision-making.
The integration of virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) technologies provides more immersive and interactive experiences for users, further advancing the industry's digital transformation. Japan's highly developed construction industry, characterized by large-scale projects and numerous small and medium-sized companies, drives strong demand for advanced construction and design software to manage complex projects and enhance competitiveness.
Growing Construction Investment
In fiscal year 2022, Japan's total construction investment was estimated at approximately 68.8 trillion yen, with building construction comprising over 60 percent of this investment. Recently, Japan has embarked on a transformative journey of infrastructure development, underscored by ambitious projects that redefine its urban landscape and economic future.
Central to this evolution are major initiatives like the high-speed rail advancements exemplified by the Chuo Shinkansen, poised to revolutionize transportation efficiency across regions. These efforts are reshaping urban planning and development, fostering the emergence of sustainable, technologically advanced cities equipped to meet future challenges. Moreover, Japan's commitment to eco-friendly construction practices, renewable energy infrastructure, and ambitious carbon-neutral initiatives underscores its leadership in global environmental stewardship. Total construction investments are forecasted to rise to over 70.3 trillion yen in fiscal year 2023, further fueling these transformative projects.
Smart Cities and Seismic Resilience
Japan aims to create smart cities where businesses and residents can actively participate in urban development. The country's urban operating system is designed to grow in response to local population expansion and technological advancements, enabling continuous and agile system development and maintenance. There is a rising demand for public safety and communication infrastructure, supported by increasing government initiatives and public-private partnership (PPP) models for smart cities.
Japan, known as the world's most earthquake-prone country, has developed cutting-edge seismic architecture and structural engineering over the past century. The country's success in mitigating earthquake damage, compared to similar disasters in other countries, is attributed to its stringent building codes and resilience-focused designs. This expertise has transformed past disasters into valuable lessons, leading to updated standards for structural engineering that enhance the safety and durability of buildings.
Large-Scale Projects
Osaka World Expo and Yumeshima Casino Resort
An artist’s rendition of the site for the 2025 Osaka Kansai Expo (From asahi.com, provided by the Japan Association for the 2025 World Exposition)
Yumeshima, or "Dream Island," is set to host the 2025 World Expo and is a candidate for Japan's first casino resort. The total investment by government and businesses for the Expo is ¥280 billion ($2.6 billion), with additional billions expected if Osaka wins its bid for a casino. This investment covers the construction and operations of the Expo, with the cost split between central government, local government, and the private sector. Ticket sales are anticipated to cover running costs.
Linear Bullet Trains
To reduce congestion and cater to growing transportation demand, the Japanese government is constructing the Chuo Shinkansen, a new maglev train route that will eventually link Tokyo and Osaka. The new line will initially travel from Tokyo to Nagoya in under 40 minutes using groundbreaking Superconducting Maglev (SCMAGLEV) technology, highlighting the technological advancements that underpin modern construction projects.
Road Infrastructure
Japan's road network spans over 1.28 million kilometers, featuring numerous bridges and tunnels due to its mountainous terrain. Roads are vital for economic activity and disaster relief, with annual investments in public roads around six trillion yen in recent years. Significant emphasis is placed on maintaining and renewing existing infrastructure, as by March 2033, 63% of road bridges and 42% of tunnels will be over 50 years old. Privatization aims to reduce costs, and the toll system ensures users bear the expenses, though infrastructure costs are expected to rise until fiscal 2044.
Data Centers
The data center market in Japan is projected to grow by 7.16% annually from 2024 to 2028, reaching a market volume of USD 23.93 billion in 2028. This growth is driven by digital transformation and AI, with a focus on resilience and green transformation. One notable project is the AirTrunk OSK1 Data Center in West Osaka, involving the construction of a 16,500m² facility with a capacity of 20MW, highlighting Japan's commitment to large-scale, technologically advanced infrastructure developments.
Urban Redevelopment
Tokyo is undergoing a significant transformation with a "once-in-a-century" redevelopment plan aimed at restoring old buildings and preparing for earthquakes. Major projects include the Toranomon 1-Chome East District Urban Redevelopment and the Dogenzaka 2-Chome South District Type One Urban Redevelopment, which feature new commercial towers and modern infrastructure, underscoring Japan's commitment to enhancing urban resilience and modernizing its urban landscape.
Increasing Demand for Renovation and Remodeling
Several factors are driving the growing demand for renovation and remodeling in Japan, including rising prices for new homes, shifts in housing policy, and the goal to become carbon neutral by 2050. Japan faces 8.49 million empty homes with a 13.8% vacancy rate due to demographic changes and urbanization, prompting government consideration of tax incentives and revisions.
In the first half of 2023, home renovation orders exceeded ¥1.5 trillion, expanding opportunities for housebuilders and housing equipment companies. Younger generations, driven by financial constraints and a desire for modern living spaces, are increasingly opting to renovate old homes as a cost-effective alternative due to the demand for new condos and apartments outpacing supply. The Bank of Japan's ultra-low interest rate policy has made homeownership more viable, driving second-hand home sales. The Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) is addressing vacant houses by promoting renovations, repurposing homes as second residences or share houses, boosting renovation demand, and revitalizing local economies.
The Japan construction market is poised for significant growth and transformation over the next decade. Despite challenges such as soaring market prices, global geopolitical tensions, and a shrinking workforce, the industry remains resilient and adaptive. Digital transformation, growing construction investments, the development of smart cities, and a focus on renovation and remodeling are key trends shaping the future of the market. With ambitious large-scale projects and a commitment to sustainability and innovation, Japan is set to maintain its position as a global leader in construction and urban development.
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December 11-13, 2024 | Tokyo Big Sight, Japan